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Wave forces on two side-by-side boxes in close proximity under wave actions were analyzed using the OpenFOAM package. The upstream box heaved freely under wave actions, whereas the downstream box remained fixed. For comparison, a configuration in which both boxes were fixed was also considered. The effects of the heave motion of the upstream box on the wave loads, including the horizontal wave forces, vertical wave forces, and moments on the boxes, were the focus of this study. Numerical analyses showed that all frequencies at which the maximum horizontal wave forces, maximum vertical wave forces, and maximum moment appeared are dependent on the heave motion of the upstream box and that the effects of the heave motion on these frequencies are different. Furthermore, these frequencies were observed to deviate from the corresponding fluid resonant frequency. Moreover, the heave motion of the upstream box reduced the wave forces acting on both boxes and altered the variation trends of the wave forces with the incident wave frequency.
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The long history of resilience to climatic change is especially apparent in the eastern Mediterranean region, which has experienced a strong negative trend in precipitation since 1960 (Mathbout et al., 2017)172 and an intense and prolonged drought episode between 2007 and 2010 (Kelley et al., 2015)173. This drought was the longest and most intense in the last 900 years (Cook et al., 2016)174. Some authors (e.g., Trigo et al., 2010; Kelley et al., 2015)175 assert that very low precipitation levels have driven a steep decline in agricultural productivity in the Euphrates and Tigris catchment basins, and displaced hundreds of thousands of people, mainly in Syria. Impacts on the water resources (Yazdanpanah et al., 2016)176 and crop performance in Iran have also been reported (Saeidi et al., 2017)177. Many historical periods of turmoil have coincided with severe droughts, for example the drought which occurred at the end of the Bronze Age approximately 3200 years ago (Kaniewski et al., 2015)178. In this instance, a number of flourishing eastern Mediterranean civilizations collapsed, and rural settlements re-emerged with agro-pastoral activities and limited long-distance trade. This illustrates how some vulnerable regions are forced to pursue drastic adaptive responses, including migration and societal structure changes.
Summer sea ice in the Arctic has been retreating rapidly in recent decades. During the period 1997 to 2014, for example, the monthly mean sea ice extent during September (summer) decreased on average by 130,000 km² per year (Serreze and Stroeve, 2015)259. This is about four times as fast as the September sea ice loss during the period 1979 to 1996. Sea ice thickness has also decreased substantially, with an estimated decrease in ice thickness of more than 50% in the central Arctic (Lindsay and Schweiger, 2015)260. Sea ice coverage and thickness also decrease in CMIP5 simulations of the recent past, and are projected to decrease in the future (Collins et al., 2013)261. However, the modelled sea ice loss in most CMIP5 models is much smaller than observed losses. Compared to observations, the simulations are less sensitive to both global mean temperature rise (Rosenblum and Eisenman, 2017)262 and anthropogenic CO2 emissions (Notz and Stroeve, 2016)263. This mismatch between the observed and modelled sensitivity of Arctic sea ice implies that the multi-model-mean responses of future sea ice evolution probably underestimates the sea ice loss for a given amount of global warming. To address this issue, studies estimating the future evolution of Arctic sea ice tend to bias correct the model simulations based on the observed evolution of Arctic sea ice in response to global warming. Based on such bias correction, pre-AR5 and post-AR5 studies generally agree that for 1.5°C of global warming relative to pre-industrial levels, the Arctic Ocean will maintain a sea ice cover throughout summer in most years (Collins et al., 2013; Notz and Stroeve, 2016; Screen and Williamson, 2017; Jahn, 2018; Niederdrenk and Notz, 2018; Sigmond et al., 2018)264. For 2°C of global warming, chances of a sea ice-free Arctic during summer are substantially higher (Screen and Williamson, 2017; Jahn, 2018; Niederdrenk and Notz, 2018; Screen et al., 2018; Sigmond et al., 2018)265. Model simulations suggest that there will be at least one sea ice-free Arctic8 summer after approximately 10 years of stabilized warming at 2°C, as compared to one sea ice-free summer after 100 years of stabilized warming at 1.5°C above pre-industrial temperatures (Jahn, 2018; Screen et al., 2018; Sigmond et al., 2018)266. For a specific given year under stabilized warming of 2°C, studies based on large ensembles of simulations with a single model estimate the likelihood of ice-free conditions as 35% without a bias correction of the underlying model (Sanderson et al., 2017; Jahn, 2018)267; as between 10% and >99% depending on the observational record used to correct the sensitivity of sea ice decline to global warming in the underlying model (Niederdrenk and Notz, 2018)268; and as 19% based on a procedure to correct for biases in the climatological sea ice coverage in the underlying model (Sigmond et al., 2018)269. The uncertainty of the first year of the occurrence of an ice-free Arctic Ocean arising from internal variability is estimated to be about 20 years (Notz, 2015; Jahn et al., 2016)270. 2b1af7f3a8